Tuesday, December 29, 2009

NFL Playoffs - Miami is out, unless...

Miami clinches a playoff spot iff:

Miami (7-8) win vs Pittsburgh (8-7)
+ New Jersey Jets (8-7) loss vs Cincinnati* (10-5)
+ Baltomore (8-7) loss vs Oakland (5-10)
+ Houston loss (8-7) vs New England** (10-5)
+ Jacksonville (7-8) loss or tie vs (4-11)

* Clinched AFC North (3rd or 4th seed)
** Clinched AFC East (3rd or 4th seed)

Is betting on the Dolphins not to get to the playoffs at this point as
safe as investing in Treasury Bills? The transaction costs on betting
are probably higher than the costs on purchasing Government securities.

Assuming no transaction costs:
Would you put your next rent or mortgage payment in T-Bills for a week?

Would you bet it on the Dolphins not getting to the playoffs this

It might be interesting to compare the rates of return on various fixed
income investments to the pay out on the a bet against the Dolphins
reaching the playoffs. What investments would have a parity within range
of the transaction cost differences?


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